It is currently (March 2026) unclear how long the Iran war will last and, therefore, how significant the economic impact may be. Below we set out which firms are most likely to be negatively affected by the conflict and explore their prevalence within the Buckinghamshire economy.
- Firms operating in energy-intensive industries
A slightly smaller proportion of Buckinghamshire businesses operate in energy intensive industries (as identified by the Office for National Statistics, ONS) than the national (England) average - 5.0% versus 6.1%. ONS identify four industries as having particularly high exposure to energy prices. Official data suggests that Buckinghamshire has no firms operating in three of industries—'manufacture of industrial gases, inorganics and fertilisers', 'manufacture of dyestuff and agro-chemicals', and 'manufacture of rubber and plastics products'—and has a slightly higher concentration of firms in the fourth, 'air transport services', than the national average.
- Logistics, distribution and transport-reliant firms
Again, a slightly smaller proportion of Buckinghamshire businesses operate in the logistics, distribution and transport industries than the national (England) average - 3.2% versus 4.4%.
- Import-dependent firms (particularly those relying on Asia-sourced goods)
While the Buckinghamshire economy is less heavily industrial than other local economies, firms that import electronics, Asian-manufactured goods, medical supplies and automotive components may face increased lead times, higher freight prices and stock disruption due to the destabilisation of global shipping routes.
- Customer-facing firms with tight margins (such as retail, hospitality and personal services)
Firms operating on tight margins in sectors such as retail and hospitality could face a ‘double whammy’ of rising energy costs and reduced consumer spending if household costs increase. Businesses in these sectors have already experienced a difficult few years, and further challenges could lead to some closures. Buckinghamshire again has a smaller proportion of firms in these sectors than the national average - 15.3% versus 19.7%.
Conclusion
Overall, the data suggests that Buckinghamshire firms are less exposed than the national average to the economic fallout from the Iran war, however, the county is not insulated from its impacts. The conflict has already pushed up global energy prices, disrupted international supply chains and increased operational risks, and these pressures will be felt to varying degrees across the local economy. The overall impact will depend heavily on how long the conflict persists, how severely global supply chains continue to be affected, and how households and businesses absorb rising costs.
